Fair Market Guesswork

Fair Market Value

The following comment was written in response to the blog article Too little, too late (The suspension of fair value accounting would have been very handy a year ago, but much of the pain has already passed), written by Tetsuya Ishikawa and published on The Guardian's Comment is Free blog, on Saturday 21 March 2009.

If you work in the financial business, then you should know what Fair Market Value really means, and more importantly, what it does not mean.   

Okay, so let's start with a definition. Fair Market Value is typically described as the price that an interested but not desperate buyer would be willing to pay and an interested but not desperate seller would be willing to accept on the open market assuming a reasonable period of time for an agreement to arise.

There is one major flaw with this as regards to banking and valuation. It assumes high levels of trust, honour and competence.

Fair Market Value is not about representing a known value; at best, it's an informed guess. Neither is Fair Market Value a real market value, there is no proof of its current market value, only a technical extrapolation. Neither is it intrinsically fair because it is essentially an informed guess. So apart from the words and the order in which they are used, it's almost a perfect term.

So why do people use Fair Market Value? Simply stated, it's a sleight of hand. Rather than provide dated valuations, for example, the last known Net Asset Value of positions in securities, it serves the needs of people who want today's value, whether it is realistic or not. It seems people would prefer an up to date guess than a dated price.

In the old days of Hedge Funds there was no such pressing need to provide a valuation of positions until a period of subscriptions and redemptions was reached. These days, there are many companies running many Funds of Funds (FoF), funds that invest in two or more underlying Hedge Funds, a pooled investment in Hedge Funds. These Funds of Funds want to provide a guess on current value for a number of reasons. The primary reason for this is that the purchaser of positions in FoFs is more likely to be a less sophisticated investor, with a much lower purchasing power, a lot less risk tolerant of risk, and more attracted to the warm and fuzzy feel of daily pricing. So, these Fund of Funds, rather than waiting for extended periods before a calculation of the net value of the underlying assets can be made, provide frequent conjectures about market value.  

The most visible merchants of FoFs are acutely aware of the psychological needs of the small and unsophisticated investors, and know how to play their client and prospect base better than any scrap-metal merchant or used car dealer, this is reflected many times in the use of Fair Market Value.

The only fair market value is the price that you have sold at, or the intrinsic value of holding positions. The rest is just informed guesswork. Maybe it's time that terms more accurately reflected their underlying meaning, however in this day and age, term abuse as well as use of deceptive terms, is rife, in business, in politics, in the media and in academia, so the chances of winning the battle against bullshit seems very slim – and that's a guess too.

Print | posted on Saturday, March 21, 2009 3:00 PM

Feedback

# re: Fair Market Guesswork

left by MartynInEurope at 3/21/2009 3:36 PM Gravatar
As some comedian said, the real problems started when people asked "and how much is this crap really worth?", the trick is to keep up the pretense of belief in the system in general, and things like "Fair Market Value" in particular. In that respect , it's a bit (okay, let's say a lot) like institutionalised religion. Don't question the dogma, or the whole house of cards is in danger.

# re: Fair Market Guesswork

left by MartynInEurope at 3/21/2009 10:26 PM Gravatar
Erdington

21 Mar 09, 7:44pm (about 2 hours ago)

Ishikawa

Capitalism is the survival of the fittest, no? Or is it the fattest ?


For my perspective at least it typically seems to be about the survivial of the lucky. Which pretty much ties in also with my take on evolution and evolutionary aspects of society.

# re: Fair Market Guesswork

left by MartynInEurope at 3/22/2009 1:32 AM Gravatar
A comment ... under the line by ... Tetsuya Ishikawa

21 Mar 09, 11:22pm (about 1 hour ago)
Contributor Contributor

@Erdington, on capitalism, I've always thought of it more as a methodology than an ideology. It is simply the method of attaining results in the 'best' way possible, however one chooses to define best (which in most cases in the recent past has been fastest). If I rememebr correctly, martynineurope argued in a comment in a previous article of mine about "short termitis" (great term btw) being the fundamental problem of capitalism, which is the same argument coming from a different angle. The ideology of capitalism would have let the banks collapse but that would have only caused more grief.

Yes, depostiros would have been protected but confidence would have been shattered, not just broken (i point to the on-going panic around Northern rock even when the Government said it would guarantee the depositors), driving asset values down not just on those being auctioned off but on assets generally. That would have hit all the banks even harder driving even more under. The knock-on effect would have been multiples of Lehmans... so yes, you might have had the pleasure of seeing bankers picking up unemployment benefit (even if rising unemployment benefit won't) but given there are plenty already in jobcentres in London, I dont think the joy of having more bankers in the line for the broader macro pain it woudl have caused is justifiable on any measure.

I do agree about bankers though. I think zero accountability has been an issue which is a far cry from the investment banking industry 20 / 30 years ago when partnerships ruled. That was true entrepreneurism. Bankers could be paid whatever but that's because they had everything at risk. Focus was on quality of earnings, not quanitites. But the roots of the loss in accountability was sewn when investment banks started going public and then ultimately, the repeal of glass-steagall. In the long-run, we should hope for the ribirth of the small private investment banking boutiques which are largely partnerhips and the disintegration of the "too big to fail" investment banks as a way to restore entrepreneurism.

As for capitalism more broadly, if you need access to capital, there is another way of getting access to it - just make money. It's hard - Branson is the obvious example of building something from nothing but many others have also done it, proving it's not impossible. (I think it was Branson who said most people ahve a good idea but only a small percentage ever do anythign about it.). Look at it another way, not every rich entrepreneur (non banker) was born with a silver spoon and your suggestion that they saved their way to it (or inherited or stole it) is an insult to the hard work they've put in.
Comments have been closed on this topic.
Untitled 1